US stock options trading roller coaster: from 3 times profit to almost zero

This article was first published in the Tiger Securities community to share the investment experience of Ming Lanying, a user of Tiger Securities. For more information, please visit the Tiger Brokers community.

  T: I was interviewed today by Bright Blue Shadow, a big V from the Tiger Community. Closer to home, how long have you been playing US stocks? Have you played A shares before?

  I have been playing in A-shares for 7 years. I know my strengths and weaknesses. Coming to the US stock market is to expand my strengths and fully expose my weaknesses.

  The U.S. stock market is for the purpose of experimenting, experimenting with all trades, the biggest losses and the biggest gains.

  But this time it was too much. The two weeks suffered heavy losses and returned to the pre-liberation overnight.

  T: Remember that you used Baidu's call to make your losses before? Is it because it kills options sideways?

  Baidu is the beginning, and then it is not calm.

  Didn't it fall sharply on the 25th, it all fell, so I cut the flesh on Baidu, and I lost 50% that day, and my full warehouse was called Baidu 250. . . He was nicknamed 250 by a tiger friend in the tiger community. . .

  I cut the meat off Baidu at the opening, and then I got angry and bought the Facebook put, because Xiaozha reduced so much, and then I bought the doomsday, 160 and 162.5 put. I bought it at 300% that day, but I bought it right. You see, I woke up in the middle of the night and sent a FB share with a profit of 300%+.

  I sold 160 put before going to bed at about 12 o’clock, and the profit was about 280%. At that time, Baidu’s losses were all recovered, and the remaining 162.5 was not sold, but the market rebounded the next day, so I sold my FB the PUT.

  I still think I’m not good enough. Before the market, our group of small partners will have a big discussion. Plus, NVDA Lao Huang will not be on the Beijing platform for a day. What kind of meeting is there? Bought NVDA's call, doomsday. You know the trend on the 26th.

  I chased NVDA's doomsday call at about 4%, as well as JD.com, and Ali. In the end, it was all the same result, opening high and moving low, losing all the way.

  Then at 11 o'clock, I thought something was wrong, so I decided to cut meat again, cut meat NVDA and Alibaba, so on the 26th, I lost another 50%.

  It ended up all the way down from my highest profit. . . Only 30% profit now.

  Screenshot from Tiger Securities Trading app

  This is the end, this is gambling. So although every time I firmly say, I can't doomsday, I can't stud. . . But it's been five times, and I can't control my hands.

  T: This is a big death... Look at you, full position options, doomsday options, only playing unilaterally without controlling risks, frequent transactions, all of which are actions that the elderly in the community repeatedly reminded not to do.

  我是练习啊,定了一年目标,就用这个做试验,用4300本金玩,各种作。而且我就拿一个月工资玩啊,又不像那些小伙伴动不动卖房子啊贷款啊啥的。

  话说盈利三倍了不作也不会死,我反思了下,这段时间操作很不冷静不理智,这是失败的主要原因。

  T :为什么要做这种试验呢?而且为什么试验就盯着期权呢?

  目前的美股已经到了牛市或者接近牛市顶点了,我先试手锻炼一下感觉,然后等牛市结束,我准备到时候搞一年工资整。

  第二个问题是因为期权杠杆大。。。我盘感比较强,自认为哈。

  T :Wow,这个信息量就大了,为什么觉得美股已经牛市末期了呢?还有您认为什么时候会开启熊市呢?

  上周看到一位老虎社区的虎友分享的新闻或者帖子,看了很有感触,非常赞同,我的观点如下图。

  T :嗯,缩表看跌啊 …… 那您选好到时候做空标的了吗?

  美股奈飞、PLCN,中概股陌陌,可能还有京东。其他的还在找啊,我一般喜欢找高价股。

  T :能说说选中它们的原因吗?

  奈飞这哥们,就一放电影的,虽然说用户突破了一亿,但是随着版权问题,他的成本越来越高,获客增长会缓慢,可能会降低,还有他电影和电视剧制作成本越来越高。

  (T:可是它抢到了“用户消费习惯转型”这个蛋糕的第一口,您不觉得这是个很大的优势吗?美国有线电视的订户数掉得可快了。)

  奈飞我更多的认为盛极而衰吧,这种见解可能很浅薄,看看4年他涨了多少,26倍。熊市来临,所有股票一起跌啊,就看谁跌得多啦。

  再说了流媒体这些,不是代表未来主流,特斯拉、谷歌、阿里这些都是未来啊。

  T :那另外三只呢?

  PCLN这是个大牛股啊,股价太高了,盛极而衰,虽然他有很好的商业模式,不可复制,但是,一旦经济危机,对他的冲击将很大,虽然上次金融危机他挺过来了并且盈利,但是他股价我看跌到1000。

  京东,我就看看刘强东和马云俩人比较下。马云天天为了公司为了事业,刘强东就只会啪啪啪奶茶妹。这货鄙视,马云进取心不说,动不动看谁谁不顺眼,不低调的人不行啊,咱的王首富就是个例子。

  (T:等等,刘强东也没有不努力工作啊?您不能因为他老婆漂亮就觉得他不努力啦。)

  好吧,有嫉妒心理啊。

  我是从财务角度看的哈。京东的毛利率,在16年之前是稳步上升的,虽然少,但是在增加,但是看看这两个季度报表,他的毛利率下降不少啊。

  通过返钱返券这种模式,不长久啊,还有就是之前说的领导人的原因,刘强东说话不靠谱,他说京东没有假货,假一赔多少呢?说话太绝对了啊。

  前几年刘强东在国外,公司成啥样了?然后现在呢,他买飞机,买别墅,到处嗨啊,话说京东还亏损呢,这样做好吗?

  虽然京东为我赚得了最大的盈利,但是我还是不看好,因为不看好刘强东。看吧,财务不改善,唯品会就是先例。

  T : …… 好吧,那说到高价股,特斯拉(TSLA)呢?领跌领涨的动能股啊,熊市要来它多半会跌很多。

  特斯拉熊市来临会腰斩啊,但是我还是看好他。。。我就看好我马哥,一个家庭,一个企业,一个国家,舵手非常重要啊。想当初特斯拉、space X这些失败了那么多,最后还是成功了。

  我不和股票谈恋爱,其实特斯拉这种不盈利的公司,熊市跌最多,并且他股价很高了。

  但是嘛,人,总要有点信仰,虽然我看跌但是我长期看好啊,如果熊市挺过来,我会一直call他,call到实现财务自由的目标。

  T :下个问题,看您对熊市的判断差不多是19年才到吧?那您怎么看近期的大盘呢?

  最近大盘动荡啊,所以我准备空仓仨月,等奈飞财报之前买1000块的深度价外put干他一把。。。

  其他时候观望为主,利好出尽就是利空同样适合美股呢。

  现在我分析是主力缓慢撤退的过程。。。半年时间给他们撤退够了吧?剩下20%就是他们抛售的时候?谁知道未来。。。

  (T:看跌到年底?)

  不是看跌,看横盘,上上下下的享受啊。

  我说的熊市从明年初开始,在2020年到最低点。现在没有系统性风险了,只会慢慢跌,不会像历次那样崩盘。

  T :那么针对期权本身您有什么心得可以分享吗?

  I think options are very simple. It's not that some people understand that they can't buy options, and they will hang up when they buy them. It's not that some people think that options can make you rich overnight, become rich and handsome in seconds, and marry Bai Fumei. Options are stocks with a lot of leverage added. Many people play without even understanding the basic concepts of options, and that's the result. . .

  A warning to everyone: I agree with Wu Tianhua, CEO of Tiger Securities, that 99% of people are not suitable for playing options, and 99% of the remaining 1% who play options are not suitable for playing doomsday options.

  I think with a clear judgment of the general trend, it is best to buy options that expire in about a month. Some people buy one or two years ago, and it is better to add leverage to the underlying stock.

  (T: Where do you think the pit of options is?)

  The pit of options is time loss. . . For example, my Baidu, I am optimistic. Before the market fell, he was strong, but when it traded sideways, my 5-week option closed higher than when I bought it a week later, and the option lost 10%.

  There are also market orders for transactions. I once placed a market order before the most pitiful market, but the transaction price was 60% lower than the actual price, and I lost 2,000 dollars in vain. This is a bloody lesson. These newbies should pay attention , the old driver needn't look at it.

  And option liquidity. Many low-priced stocks or illiquid stocks (low turnover rate), such options have very poor liquidity, and the spread may be more than 50%. If the stock goes up by 3%, the option will not move, but if the stock goes up by 3%, it will fall by 0.5%, and the option will fall by 20%. Through the pricing formula of options, it can be seen that the better the liquidity, the higher the stock price is, and it is suitable to play options, and this kind of income is often the biggest.

  These are all basic, because I am not competent enough and I am still at the junior level, but I think it is helpful for newbies and ignored by veteran drivers. . .

  By the way, there is a more suitable one, short options.

  The best target is UVXY, this dude, sell his call 95% profit.

  You can open any one of the out-of-the-price ones, and they all go all the way down. . . His put is all the way down. This guy is an option harvester. Many people make money through him.

  (T: The margin of empty UVXY is very high, and the risk of being liquidated at a high point is also very high.)

  In the bear market, just sell Tesla and call. Anyway, the best income from options is to short, which must have better technology, just like doing futures.

  Tiger Securities Tip: Securities investment is a risky investment behavior. Investors need to make investment decisions based on comprehensive analysis of multi-party information. This article only provides investors with investment knowledge and learning materials, and does not constitute any investment advice.

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